Clean technology mandates can slash prices and carbon emissions to spark cascade of positive tipping points

Governments can start a global cascade of “positive tipping points” to cut prices and carbon emissions by using mandates to switch investment from polluting fossil fuels to clean technologies, according to a new report launched today at Climate Week NYC.

Researchers found that regulatory mandates with specific timeframes will ensure clean technologies become cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives up to three years earlier worldwide – reducing carbon emissions in the power, transport and heating sectors by at least 75% in 2050.

The report compares the effectiveness of regulatory mandates, subsidies and carbon taxes in over 70 countries to see which would most quickly lead to positive tipping points in terms of cheaper prices for consumers, enabling clean technologies to outcompete fossil fuels in major emitting sectors.

The researchers examined four sectors: power, heating, light road transport and heavy road transport.

They found regulatory mandates, that require manufacturers in a sector to meet a rising share of sales from clean technologies or that phase out the most polluting fuels, were the most effective way to reach tipping points in all four sectors – and this increased the chance of cascades, where change in each sector helps accelerate the others.

The mandates the experts assessed and recommend are:

• Phase-out of coal power by 2035 for developed countries and by 2045 for developing countries.
• Require a rising proportion of car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, reaching 100% by 2035.
• Require a rising proportion of truck sales to be zero emission vehicles, reaching 100% by 2040.
• Require a rising proportion of heating appliance sales to be heat pumps from 2025, reaching 100% by 2035.

“With the world off course to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals, triggering positive tipping points is now the only credible way to limit global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,” said co-author Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

“We need a rapid transformation in our economies and society that dramatically cuts prices and carbon emissions. Focusing on positive tipping points benefits consumers, taxpayers, businesses and people around the world facing the worst impacts of climate change. Mandates are clearly the most effective policy approach – and we call on policymakers worldwide to implement them at speed. Failure to do so will have high human and economic costs.”

Co-author Simon Sharpe, Director of S-Curve Economics, a non-profit research organisation, said: “Our findings show clean technology mandates can bring forward the tipping points in four critical sectors significantly faster than subsidies or carbon taxes.

“Mandates also provide certainty for businesses, investors and consumers, and if countries work together to implement them in a coordinated way, they will drive down clean technology costs even faster.”

The researchers used models that simulate how investors or consumers choose between technologies based on availability, cost and historical preferences.

“We found that policies to advance the low-carbon transition in any one of these sectors will help bring forward the tipping point in the other three,” said Simon Sharpe.

“For example, increased use of clean electricity or energy storage in one sector drives innovation and brings down the cost of these technologies, enabling faster transitions in the other sectors. In addition, the increasing electrification of heating and transport provides new options for balancing the power system, reducing the cost of clean power.”

The paper also identifies “super-leverage points” with the greatest potential to trigger cascades of positive change.

Lead author Dr Femke Nijsse said: “The zero-emission mandate for cars shows the best potential for a ‘super-leverage point’ for the global transition.

“This policy not only has the highest effect within its own sector, but also has a significant positive influence on the transition in other sectors.

“Coal power phaseout is also a super-leverage point, bringing forward positive tipping points in the heating and heavy road transport sectors by up to four years in some countries.”

The report is published in the week that the UK will close its last coal power plant, being the first G7 country to phase out coal power, and meeting its commitment to do so a year early.

Dr Nijsse concludes: “Major economies should coordinate their actions to shift investment in global markets towards clean technologies, helping more countries make faster progress towards the tipping points where clean technologies become cheaper than fossil fuels.

“In the power sector, the first such tipping point has already been passed – solar and wind power are cheaper forms of electricity generation than burning coal or gas, in most of the world – and the rate of progress is dramatic. And the faster the transition, the earlier countries can reap the benefits of cheaper energy – economically, socially and environmentally.”

The report is entitled: “A positive tipping cascade in power, transport and heating” and looks at data from over 70 countries, including all of the major carbon emitters. The report launches at Climate Week NYC on Monday 23 September 2024 in partnership with Climate Group.

Helen Clarkson, CEO of Climate Group, said: “We’re in the age of urgency – we need bold, real-world action to push the transition into the mainstream. This positive tipping points report perfectly aligns with what Climate Group has been doing in its initiatives with corporates: accelerating climate action to tip the balance in favour of the planet. The report shows a clear path and policy approach to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

The report was produced as part of the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project, a collaborative research programme involving experts in the UK, China, India and Brazil.  The University of Exeter also works in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund on positive tipping points research.