Major UK firms on course for ‘disorderly’ green transition

A new report from the University of Exeter and J O Hambro Capital Management has found that major UK companies are on course for a ‘disorderly’ green transition.

Experts from the two organisations have jointly developed a new probabilistic forecasting model, Horizon, which is used to project emissions from UK-listed firms from 2025 to 2050.

The model forecasts a period of emissions “plateauing” until about 2032, followed by a reduction from 350 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent to approximately 115 million tonnes in 2050 – about one third of current levels.

While this progress is substantial, it remains insufficient to meet the net zero pathway needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, placing the UK on track for a ‘disorderly’ transition and exposing the UK economy to heightened risks.

The Horizon Corporate Emissions report assessed 347 firms, representing 89% of the total market capitalisation (value) of the UK’s listed companies and spanning 20 industry sectors, including Transport, Oil and Gas, Technology and Finance.

The Horizon model used in the study only looks at evidence of decarbonisation, ignoring stated ambitions, to forecast future trends and the resulting risks.

The report only assessed scope 1 and 2 emissions – as data on scope 3 (indirect emissions across a company’s value chain) is poorly reported and inconsistently disclosed, limiting their reliability for comprehensive analysis. Scope 3 emissions often represent a significant portion of a company’s total carbon footprint and should be urgently addressed through enhanced reporting and regulations.

About the Authors

This report was delivered in collaboration between J O Hambro Capital Management and the University of Exeter’s Green Futures Solutions team, who develop expert-informed solutions to the climate crisis.

The report was authored by Nicola Wilson (University of Exeter), Nikolaos Dimakis (Senior Data Scientist, J O Hambro), Dr Jesse Abrams (Climate Systems Scientist, University of Exeter – Green Futures Solutions), Andrew Parry (Head of Investments, J O Hambro) and Professor Tim Lenton (Chair in Earth Systems Science, University of Exeter).

From June 30 to July 4, the University of Exeter will host the Exeter Climate Forum – a major gathering of scientists, policy makers and business leaders to discuss growing risks from climate change, and action to address it.