City leaders can accelerate ‘tipping point’ in electric trucks transition

Cities hold the keys to accelerating the transition to electric freight and boosting energy security, new analysis from C40 Cities, University of Exeter, and Arup reveals.

Heavy-duty vehicles – though less than 10% of the global commercial vehicle fleet – account for 25% of transport-related CO2 emissions and are expected to see a doubling in global demand by 2050.

While progress is being made in China and Europe, the global transition to electric freight remains uneven – with battery limitations, charging times, grid capacity, and infrastructure gaps making trucks harder to decarbonise than passenger vehicles. In 2025, only 8% of trucks sold were electric, compared with 25% for passenger cars.

However, new modelling in the ‘Accelerating Urban Freight Decarbonisation’ report, featuring data from Laneshift, an initiative from C40 and The Climate Pledge, reveals how close a ‘tipping point’ – a threshold beyond which a small additional nudge tips the market into rapid, self-sustaining change – in the electric freight market could be, and the consequences for energy security:

Markus Berensonn, Head of Mitigation Research, C40 Cities:

“City leaders have more power to shape the global logistics market than some would think. While achieving cost parity is a vital first step, our analysis shows that affordability alone is not enough to tip the market. This is where municipal action comes into play. By deploying a suite of local levers, cities are well-positioned to drive forward the critical accessibility and attractiveness thresholds that fleets need to transition.

Dr Cormac Lynch, Impact Fellow at University of Exeter – Green Futures Solutions, said:

“Our modelling shows the electric freight transition is nearing a tipping point in leading cities much earlier than widely assumed. Once costs, infrastructure and policy align at the city-level, the shift to electric trucks can accelerate rapidly and irreversibly. This lays a clear path for city leaders to make a decisive difference. One that delivers a triple dividend of rapid emissions cuts, cleaner air, and a significant boost in resilience to global energy shocks.”

Christina Xiao, Senior Research Manager, C40 Cities:

“This report, backed by new quantitative modelling and successful case studies from across the globe, provides city leaders practical evidence to show how – when different levels of government and cities work together – they can create a powerful multiplier effect, triggering a ripple effect that brings the global zero-tailpipe-emission freight tipping point closer.”

Léan Doody, C40 Partnership Director, Arup, said:

“The report demonstrates that the transition to electric freight is no longer just an environmental question, but also a significant economic opportunity for cities and governments. Through Arup’s work across policy, infrastructure and system planning, we see first-hand how coordinated action can accelerate the development of cleaner, more resilient freight networks and deliver lasting benefits across the transport system.

The ‘Accelerating Freight Decarbonisation: A City Guide to EV Truck Tipping Points‘ report is a strategic guide to accelerating electric freight adoption. It equips cities with local policy tools, highlights opportunities for regional and national collaboration, and pairs policy analysis with quantitative modelling to give city leaders and industry stakeholders a strategic path forward.

The report is a collaborative project between C40 Cities, Arup, and the University of Exeter, with support from The Climate Pledge.

Its release precedes an official launch event during London Climate Action Week (Friday 26th June), before discussions continue at the Exeter Climate Forum the following week.